At the RNC’s grand finale tonight, we will hear plenty about how John McCain is a “maverick” and a Washington outsider who is ready to ride into town with sweeping reforms and new ideas. Well, as the following clip from one of the Republican primary debates shows, McCain has a distinct lack of ideas of his own. In fact, when pressed by Ron Paul on an economic question (the #1 issue for voters, by the way), all he can do is refer to long-time Washington insiders like Jack Kemp and Phil Gramm. Watch and enjoy.

Today, Richard Silverstein officially joins The Seminal as our newest author! From his bio:

Richard Silverstein writes Tikun Olam, one of the earliest progressive Jewish blogs (2003), dedicated to Israeli-Arab peace. He also created the Israel Palestine Forum, a site for progressive discussion of the issues related to the conflict. He writes weekly for the Guardian’s Comment is Free blog and for Huffington Post. He has also published at Haaretz, the Jewish Forward, the Los Angeles Times, and American Conservative Magazine. He contributed a chapter to A Time to Speak Out (Verso Books), an essay collection by Independent Jewish Voices to be published in October. He earned undergraduate degrees from Columbia University and the Jewish Theological Seminary and an MA in Comparative Literature at UCLA. He has been devoted to Israeli-Arab peace since 1968, and currently lives in Seattle with his wife and three children.

We’re honored to have such a strong and intelligent voice on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict here on The Seminal.

Welcome!

(originally published at MWC News)

Lord have mercy.

What have we done? That’s what Voodoo Christians must be asking themselves. It’s one thing to pray up a storm. It’s quite another to make God’s dart hit the bulls-eye. In case you missed it, Focus on the Family’s self-appointed prophet-jester, Stuart Shepard, released a video on or about Aug. 8, urging Christians to pray for “rain of biblical proportions” in order to drown out Barack Obama’s climactic acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. I’m not saying the Lord had other plans. But as I write this, Tropical Storm Gustav is bearing down on New Orleans, or somewhere close. It could hit Houston or Panama City, Florida. Meanwhile, dozens of counties in that land of hanging chads have been declared disaster areas, thanks to floods which drenched the entire state last week. Seems smiting folks with rain and winds “of biblical proportions” is not an exact, um… science.

Today, August 29th, John McCain is celebrating his 72nd birthday by announcing his VP pick, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. In 2007 he similarly deflected from his annual age increase by officially announcing his bid for president, done via The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. 

Other past celebrations include the festive 2005 pastry-op with President Bush shown above (taken as New Orleans was getting Katrina’d) and a 2006 celebration spent on the yacht of Russian aluminum tycoon and Putin-ally Oleg Deripaska.

We at The Seminal wish the old warhorse a happy day.

An update to our congressional calling campaign, in numbers:

• 50% - the percentage of Congress that has received phone calls about health care (251 Members, to be exact)
• 17 - the number of Members who have officially declared they are on our side for quality, affordable health care for all
• 19 - the number of calls it took for those 17 Members of Congress to declare they are on our side

As of today, these are the Members of Congress who have signed on:

Sen. Barbara Milulski, MD -The first to sign on!
Sen. Tom Harkin, IA
Rep. Mike Ross, AR
Rep. Marion Berry, AR
Rep. Raul Grijalva, AZ
Rep. Henry Waxman, CA
Rep. Jan Schakowsky, IL
Rep. Alcee Hastings, FL
Rep. William Jefferson, LA
Rep. Keith Ellison, MN
Rep. Bill Pascrell, NJ
Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, NY
Rep. Brian Higgins, NY
Rep. John Hall, NY
Rep. Adam Smith, WA
Rep. Tammy Baldwin, WI
Rep. Steve Kagen, WI

If you live in these people’s states or districts, you can give them a call and thank them. But the real thanks goes to you.

None of this would be possible without folks calling their elected officials and demanding health care for all. Even though we are setting up in-person meetings with Members of Congress, both in their home states and up on Capitol Hill, they will not listen unless they hear from their constituents. As noted above, a few calls goes a long way - only 19 were needed to get the above 17 Members of Congress to sign on.

Take a few moments and make a few quick calls. And when you’re done, spread the word by telling your friends and family about this campaign.

More Congressional sign-ons are coming, and the more you call, the more people we’ll have on our side for the real fight in 2009.

(also posted at the NOW! blog)

From East Africa to South Asia, the US is disengaging in the former “hot spots” of the War on Terror. It’s a quiet admission that Bush’s foreign policy has failed.

In Somalia, regarded by the administration as the terrorist haven of the Horn, our proxies and allies the Ethiopians are talking about withdrawing after nearly two years of occupying their neighbor. In part, they blame lack of support from the West. If Ethiopia does withdraw, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Union of Islamic Courts - the Islamist group Ethiopia originally invaded in order to dismantle - regain power.

In the Middle East we’re also seeing the US pull back somewhat. Not only are the US and the Iraqi government drawing up timetables, we’re handing back control of key provinces. On September 1st Iraq will officially take back control of Anbar Province. By year’s end Iraq may control 13 of its 18 provinces. Meanwhile, increased stability in Basra could prompt the British to leave completely in early 2009. More and more, sources say that Iraqi forces are “stepping up” - even though we’re only “standing down” because we’re not wanted.

Unfortunately, the US is also pulling back from its diplomatic goals in Israel/Palestine, allowing even the slim hopes of a peace agreement by year’s end to slowly slip away. Another blow to Bush’s legacy.

Even in Afghanistan, the US is handing off some security commitments to the local government. Afghans will be taking over security in the capital, Kabul - a move that observers say is largely symbolic, and also a money pit for billions - signaling some effort to get the ball rolling on Afghan autonomy. We’re also sending foreign fighters captured in Afghanistan back to their home countries. Are these changes admissions of an inability to deal with all the problems in the War on Terror, or signs that the US army is overextended? The Christian Science Monitor asks whether handing over Anbar has more to do with “success” there, or with the urgent need to send marines from Iraq to Afghanistan.

We’ll see escalation in Afghanistan yet, I fear. And perhaps in Pakistan too. But I think what we’re seeing everywhere else - and will probably see in Afghanistan too - is, as I said at the beginning, the quiet failure of the War on Terror. A Somalia just as lawless and anarchic as it was two years ago. An Iraq where everything seems uncertain, and the capitalist paradise and democratic utopia planned by neocons in DC think tanks have become a state-driven economy and an uneasy oligarchy. An Afghanistan where the Taliban are back, as strong as before the war started. A Pakistan where the departure of our “son of a bitch” has left the country in tatters, despite the billions we’ve funneled in for “fighting terror” (aka funding it). An Israel less safe, in my reckoning, than when Clinton left office. A Palestine no closer to statehood, still partly ruled by Bush’s enemies Hamas, and a Middle East rife with tension, hostility, and uncertainty. By all of its stated goals, the War on Terror cannot count a single lasting success.

The geopolitical situation facing the next president would have been complex without Bush’s failed schemes. With them, it’s an absolute mess.

In a panel in The Big Tent in Denver moderated by The Washington Note’s Steve Clemons, pollster Geoff Garin opined that the Obama campaign really hasn’t taken on John McCain the way they should. One example he gave was over the compromise energy plan that Obama made some positive remarks about. Garin said that here we have a bipartisan plan, Five Democrats and Five Republicans came up with moderate, maverick plan. Obama has said that he appreciates the plan because it illustrates the kind bipartisan, outside the box thinking that he would want to occur when he is President. How can McCain take up the Maverick, Bipartisan label if he opposes this agreement? Obama should hit him over the head with it by saying that John cCain is so tied to the oil industry he can’t even support bipartisanship on teh energyissue.

Another item Geoff Garin came up with is the national security issue. As he said, “John McCain’s answer to international problems is always to send in troops.” Garin pointed out that when the Clinton Administration started bombing Serbia from the air, McCain denounced this tactic destined for failure and said that the only way to solve the issue was to send in massive ground forces. Well since he was drastically wrong, as the air campaign led to Serbia’s surrender and withdrawal from Kosovo, this example paints a frightening picture of what a McCain foreign policy would be like. It also questions McCain’ judgement.

Garin’s examples show that if used intelligently, McCain’s own record can be used to counter the maverick, wise, bipartisan identity that he is trying to carve out for himself.

While McCain’s newfound mantra of “Drill, Drill,Drill” may have helped him a bit in the opinion polls, the view in the streets of Denver is that Energy is a winning issue for the Democrats in the Fall. Numerous events and panels address Green issues, with a special focus on alternative energy — but the real question is whether the Dmeocrtas can frame the issue in a way that wins for them in time for the November election.

Congressman Ed Markey (D-MA) gave some signals as to what the strategy will be as part of a panel on “The Politics of Green” sponsored by The New Republic.  For the twelve years that the Republicans controlled Congress and did nothing about fuel mileage standards, alternative energy and a host of other energy issues. The rhetoric of the Republicans for the past year, however, has been to say yes to everything — better fuel efficiency, alternative energy research and development, tax credits for hybrid vehicles — but they then vote against these proposals (or filibuster them) saying that they want oil drilling to be included. That is they want all options, or it seems, none. Well, Markey explained, this September they will get the chance to vote on an “all of the above” bill and then we all will see what they will do.  He called it the most critical debate of this Fall and one that could define the issue for the campaign.

What exactly the “All of the Above” bill will be is still unclear.  As the Congress was about to go on recess, a group of ten Senators from both parties met and came up with a compromise plan to address the gridlock in the congressional energy debate. This “Gang of Ten” — Five Democrats, Five Republicans — put forth their proposal that could be the “all of the above” plan that Markey was talking about.  The proposal includes:

• A Goal of having 85% of all new vehicles running on non-petroleum-based fuels within 20 years;
• Providing billions of dollars in research and development to help automakers develop these new vehicles;
• Up to $7500 in tax credits to consumers who buy vehicles that run on renewable fuels;
• Requires the federal government to open up some new areas of the Gulf of Mexico to oil drilling and exploration, and;
• Allows offshore oil drilling at least 50 miles off the coasts of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, but only if those states give their permission.
• The bill is paid for by canceling tax breaks for big oil totaling $30 billion and by getting some royalty revenues from Gulf of Mexico oil drilling.

So will the congressional Democrats allow some offshore oil drilling in order to get some other energy gains as well as turn the energy issue around for the November election?  That is unclear. But what is clear is that the five Republicans in the Gang of Ten have gotten hell from a lot of conservatives. They do not like the removal of the big oil tax credits and the subsidies for research that would decrease the power of Big Oil. There is also the sense that passing this bill would basically cut off future debate about drilling in ANWR, which is a critical element to the oil industry’s demands from the Republicans. And John McCain doesn’t seem to be embracing the plan.

The odds are that even if this plan passed the House that it would not pass through a Senate filibuster — but if it did wouldn’t it be fun to see Bush squirm as to whether he should veto or sign a bill that does contain some offshore oil drilling? Signing it would mean that the issue would be removed from this year’s election. Vetoing it would mean that he is an utter and complete shill for the oil industry, not that that is anything new.

But in the end, the Democrats may need to decide which pill is worse — some offshore oil drilling or losing the issue to the Republicans, at least in teh short-run.

One of the main topics here in Denver is the issue of Obama being unable to solidify a lead over John McCain.  Causing panic is the release of the latest CNN poll which has Obama and McCain tied at 47%.  With Obama, Biden and the media hitting John McCain hard over his confusion about the number of houses he owns, Democrats and pundits alike believed that, at the very least, the GOP nominee’s numbers would decline a bit. But so far, no dice.  So what is the problem?

Where Obama is having problems seems to be with the white working-class voter with whom Bill Clinton did so well, as well as a minority of Hillary supporters who still do not want to back Obama — with some of those two groups overlapping. Recent polling has Obama being assured of “only” 80% of the Democratic vote at the moment. There seem two be two issues that Obama has to address head-on in order to get the voters that should be easily drawn to the Democrats this year: Economic Security and National Security/Patriotism.

Pollster Stan Greenberg, drawing from a study he did of Macomb County, Michigan Voters, explained that these voters want people to address their economic problems from their own point of view, not that of an outsider. To these voters, Obama’s plan is not getting through because he hasn’t connected with them in a way that shows them that he understands their lives. Rather he is viewed as an outsider, whereas Bill CLinton seemed like one of them.  Joe Biden might be able to help a little when it comes to addressing economic issues with these voters, but it Obama that still bears the burden.

At the same National Journal panel where Greenberg presented his findings, SEIU President Andy Stern explained that while Obama is “totally good” on the issues, he has work to do when it comes to salesmanship. How should Obama sell himself?  Stern offers good, down-to-earth commentary, “People are angry that they have done everything they have been asked to do, and not only are they not getting ahead, but they are falling behind.”  Obama needs to show he understands that plight.

The other side is the national security/patriotism issues which Greenberg explained were intricately intertwined.  For those for whom race is an issue, there is nothing that Obama says that could change their mind.  But for these voters, the hardest thing to get over is Obama’s association with Rev. James Wright and the G-d Damn America” speech. With the viral emails and Fox News rumors about Obama not holding his hand over his heart and saying the pledge of allegiance.  Some voters, while not certain if these rumors are true, don’t want to take a chance. And this is tied to National Security since if these voters aren’t absolutely sure of Obama’s allegiances, then they aren’t certain that he would defend the USA.  Obama seems to have an opening with working class women, though men who have already determined that Obama is not trustworthy on the patriotism issue are probably lost for this election.

One bright sign is with women overall.  Emily’s List President, Ellen Malcolm, described Planned Parenthood’s  survey  which showed that when women learned that John McCain is in favor of overturning Roe v. Wade, they left him in droves.

What Obama needs to do to attract these voters is to not just offer policy initiative, though that is important, not just offer hope, though that is important, not just show that he understands their condition, though that is important, but to appeal to people’s aspirations — explain to these voters how they will win with an Obama presidency.  What he needs to do, as Andy Stern explained, is to ask these voters what they think is in store for not just their own future, but that of the children and grandchildren.  Do they really believe, he should ask, that a John McCain presidency will secure their future?

They say that politics makes strange bedfellows—exhibit one: my flight to Denver.

Sorry for the quality of this hastily snapped photo—but yes, that is Rev. Al Sharpton Jr. and Harold Ford Jr. waiting together for their luggage at the Denver Airport. So much to talk about!

Actually not. After some pleasantries and a handshake or two for the assembled media, Sharpton and Ford seemed to have little to say to each other. Hey, I don’t know, maybe they talk all the time. . . .

(I will be blogging from Denver, the site of the Democratic National Convention all week. Stay tuned for more earth shattering revelations. . . and, who knows, maybe some high-minded analysis, as well.)