I’m rarely shocked in politics anymore.  It all seems so, well, scripted.  When I woke up this morning here in Seattle to see that Senator John McCain had picked someone other than Mitt Romney as his VP pick, and that his pick was A) a woman not named Kay Bailey Hutchinson and B) a less than one-term Governor and C) from the state of Alaska, I was, and still am, shocked. This is not a wise choice Senator.

I try to be fair and impartial when looking at campaigns since I’ve worked on them for so long. I like to think I’m the first to point out when someone said something smart or made a good move, but this is not one of those times. For one, Governor Sarah Palin’s complete lack of experience pretty much eliminates McCain’s most effective attack against Barack Obama. Also, a pro-lifer who wants to teach creationism alongside evolution in our public schools doesn’t reach Clinton supporters, and think that’s the tactic McCain was going for.

This woman is technically a heartbeat away from the presidency, if it comes to that, and just looking at the 72-year-old McCain makes that statement more than just a figure of speech. If Obama’s four years in the Senate aren’t enough, then how is 20 months as Governor of a sparsely populated state that’s (according to my friends that live in Alaska) as disconnected of a state as you can get while still being an American help you pass the so-called “McCain Test?”

With all this, the VP technically has two jobs until the election: Be an effective surrogate and do somewhat well in a debate against the other VP candidate. The only question now is whether Joe Biden will be seen as a bully for knowing a lot more than Governor Palin does on, well, everything. In the sharpest critique of Governor Palin, my girlfriend (who thought McCain was President Bush’s VP right now) upon hearing the Governor speak stated, “She sounds like a librarian,” and then upon seeing what she looked like said, “She doesn’t look like she can be in charge of anything.”  Take it from me, trust everyone who knows nothing about politics. These are the people who vote and these are the people that politicians are talking to in those boring speeches.

I do find McCain’s choice interesting, but only in the sense that he’s blatantly pandering to Clinton voters.  My words for McCain? Palin is no Clinton. McCain doesn’t need Clinton voters, he needs his evangelical base. Why he isn’t pandering to them (since his lips are securely fastened to Pat Robertson’s genitals) is beyond me. Or, since this election is obviously about the economy, something McCain admittedly knows nothing about, why he didn’t pick a candidate with strong economic credentials? This pick makes me question his overall judgment in a time of crisis. Is winning more important than being right? Apparently so, in the mind of John McCain, but I doubt that this horrific choice for VP does anything to rally the faithful, and will probably leave more people shaking their heads after the convention.

Let’s look at it this way: John McCain’s first big decisions so far have been to allow his economic policy to be written by a man who called us a “nation of whiners,” and choosing as the potential 2nd most powerful person in the world someone who agrees with McCain on pretty much everything and really, really wants to be the Vice President. If he wanted a woman for shock value, he should’ve chose Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson. The only problem is that people actually like her more than McCain, and his biggest fear is being thought of as weak. So he chose a weak VP to make him look tougher, but it just makes him look older.

Heck of a job there, Brownie. There’s about 60 days left to go in this election and McCain’s going to spend more time selling his #2 then talking about why he should be #1. Excellent “judgment.”  Is she ready to lead on day one, and if so are you ready to admit that, then isn’t Obama is also ready to lead? Are you a hypocrite, or just stupid?

That’s my two cents. I’m glad to be back.

This week, we want to know if John McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate was a good choice, but first, the results from our last poll.

In our last poll, we asked you what the appropriate response to Russia’s invasion of Georgia is. 41% of you said diplomatic pressure was the right course, and 35% of you said we shouldn’t do anything. Not surprisingly, only 7% of you were for international military intervention, with only 4% for unilateral intervention. 14% of you said UN sanctions were appropriate.

This week, we want you to weigh in on McCain’s gamble. By choosing Sarah Palin, he’s chosen an extremely inexperienced and scandle-ridden candidate, but one who might play very well with certain demographics like women and social conservatives. So, was Sarah Palin a good pick for McCain? Or does it show arrogance, rashness, and lack of judgement? Voting begins now in the sidebar at your left.

(originally published at MWC News)

Lord have mercy.

What have we done? That’s what Voodoo Christians must be asking themselves. It’s one thing to pray up a storm. It’s quite another to make God’s dart hit the bulls-eye. In case you missed it, Focus on the Family’s self-appointed prophet-jester, Stuart Shepard, released a video on or about Aug. 8, urging Christians to pray for “rain of biblical proportions” in order to drown out Barack Obama’s climactic acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. I’m not saying the Lord had other plans. But as I write this, Tropical Storm Gustav is bearing down on New Orleans, or somewhere close. It could hit Houston or Panama City, Florida. Meanwhile, dozens of counties in that land of hanging chads have been declared disaster areas, thanks to floods which drenched the entire state last week. Seems smiting folks with rain and winds “of biblical proportions” is not an exact, um… science.

The media doesn’t realize yet that it is being played.  After telling the media, over and over, that experience matters, above all, John McCain has picked a shockingly unqualified running mate with absolutely zero foreign policy experience.  So far, the media has eagerly taken the bait, gushing about the boldness of the Palin pick and exclaiming over how it energizes the base while often failing to note McCain’s hypocrisy.

The Politico briefly mentions that “serious questions remain about McCain’s pick–exactly how much he knows about her and her positions, past and present, on key issues.”  That’s the understatement of the week.  Is anyone actually planning on asking McCain some of these questions?  Here are some I’d ask McCain?

• If a Vice President Palin were called on to assume the duties of the presidency, what foreign policy experience would she draw on in dealing with situations in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, and elsewhere?
• How many times did you meet with Gov. Palin before you named her as your running mate?
• What makes Gov. Palin the most qualified person in the Republican party to serve as vice president? 
• What has Gov. Palin done to advance women’s rights?
• Do you, and Gov. Palin, believe that women in the United States face discrimination?  Have you discussed this with the governor, and what is your plan to combat discrimination against women?
• As a senator, what legislation have you helped enact that responds to discrimination against women?
• Does your selection of Gov. Palin give us an idea of how you would decide important issues facing you as president?

That’s just for starters.

Here we go again.  It’s Labor Day Weekend, and a major hurricane is taking aim on the Gulf Coast.  Gustav is lining up to make a direct hit on Louisiana just as Katrina did three years ago.  The forecast is so grim, the Republicans are considering postponing their convention .  Apparently, they don’t want to share media coverage with disaster victims, and they don’t want to appear insensitive and uncaring to their suffering yet again.

No matter what happens, a major hurricane making landfall just two months before the election would thrust a number of issues to the forefront - most notably climate change, oil dependence, and the need to reform government bureaucracies.  Each party would put some heavy spin on these issues in an effort to blame the other party for the costs and the destruction that are incurred.

But there is one crucial topic concerning natural disasters that no politician will touch with a ten-foot pole, especially presidential candidates that want to win Florida or any other coastal state.  This topic is the absurd fact that our government continually spends billions of billions of dollars to help rebuild areas that are almost certain to get wiped out again.

Let’s start with Florida.  In 2004, the Sunshine State endured four direct hits from hurricanes, prompting Congress to appropriate $13 billion in taxpayer money to help residents rebuild.  And it’s not like those four storms were aberrations.  In the past eight years alone, Florida has been hit by more than 50 tropical storms and hurricanes that have caused $64 billion worth of damage.  People in Florida don’t talk about “if” another hurricane is going to hit.  They talk about “when.”  And they seem stubbornly eager to pick up the pieces and rebuild time and time again - on the government’s dollar.

And then there’s New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.  I spent the summer of 2000 in the Crescent City.  Back then, residents knew that a category 4 or 5 hurricane would fill up the city like a bathtub.  And when that happened, instead of saying, “Forget this, I’m going to move somewhere safer,” they summoned their pride and their courage, and they went back and they rebuilt - with the help of $116 billion from Uncle Sam.  One can only wonder what they are thinking as they watch Gustav threatening to knock them right back to 2005, and if they’ll show the same resolve to come back and rebuild should they be wiped out again.

It’s time for the American people to ask itself some tough questions.   Should taxpayers be asked to pay for rebuilding in areas that are likely to get hit again?  Should we tell people that if you choose to live there, you do so at your own risk?  Especially in this era when the climate is changing and tropical weather is getting more intense, it’s time for us to get over the hubris that tells us that we don’t have to listen to mother nature. 

After all, with the sea level rising, we’re going to have to vacate our coastal cities anyway.

Given the weak field of Republican vice presidential candidates, it was inevitable that McCain’s final decision would raise some eyebrows. The selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin did not disappoint. It did, however, add its own twist; instead of skepticism, the brows bear the mark of confusion. The befuddlement is almost palpable.

Still, no matter how unlikely it seems at first glance, further examination clarifies, and more than redeems, the choice. This is not to say that McCain’s found a gem, or that Dems rubbing their hands in glee at the prospect of a Biden/Palin debate are jumping the gun. It simply means that, unsatisfied with the contestants in its tallest midget contest, McCain & Co. went out and found a taller midget.

Before I present my case for Palin as the right choice, I suggest you read Alex Thurston’s concise and crippling look at the Mav’s other options. If you already know how poor the crop was this year, continue apace.

• The Maverick and his Wing-Woman

An effective critique against McCain this election cycle has been that he is McSame, simply a continuation of the last 8 years of failed policy. It’s effective cause it’s true, but Palin as VP somewhat mitigates the force of the argument. She is a face that is ”both fresh and fierce.” In a sense (the geographical kind) she is the ultimate Washington outsider (unless, of course, Hawaii is further — I haven’t run the numbers). She gives pundits the opportunity to paint Biden’s ample DC experience as a liability, to paint him as the insider. Sure, it’s a weak counter-attack, but Republicans have effectively used weaker material in the past.

• Got Change?

Perhaps more importantly, and more obviously, Sarah Palin breaks up Obama’s monopoly on change in this election. Whichever side gets elected, we can claim a significant step forward as a nation. Also, as Ian pointed out, Palin may shore up some of those HRC supporters who lusted after a female in the White House.

• Grounding the McCain Campaign

The McCain campaign has reveled in its down-to-earth appeal, knowing the middle-class is key to any general election. It paints Obama as the out-of-touch celebrity, McCain as the humble war hero. But, with the recent attention given to McCain’s definition of rich, his ignorance of the palaces he keeps, and the transformation of his Straight-Talk Express to the No-Talk Jet, the appeal’s been tarnished. Palin’s the perfect spit-shine; She fishes. She hunts. She started her career as a sportswriter. Her eldest son Track enlisted in the army on September 11, 2007, and, in a perfect media moment, will be deployed to Iraq on September 11, 2008. Her husband is a champion snowmobile racer, and is often referred to in Alaska as First Dude. Lastly, as an added bonus for those who are worried that McCain would lose the evangelical flock, Palin is a conservative Christian who opposes abortion.

In short, for all her inexperience, Palin brings some formidable qualities to the table. Her selection is a nod to the reality of the American electorate in some key states and, once the dust clears, I think it’ll be apparent that McCain made the best of his limited options.

Like many today I watched in semi-awe as Alaska Governor Sarah Palin graciously accepted the position of John McCain’s running mate.

Television pundits explained why the Palin “package” is so compelling to conservatives. Palin is a (very) junior Republican who has already earned herself an excellent reputation for fighting corruption, as well as an 80+% approval rating as Alaska’s governor. At 44, she is the mother of 5 children, the oldest of whom recently enlisted and will soon be deployed to Iraq. She is a lifelong NRA member, a hunter, a high school basketball champion, and a former runner up for Miss Alaska. She is vehemently pro-domestic drilling — including in ANWR — and as one pundit suggested, possesses a “keen sense of the geopolitics of energy.” Palin’s background is thoroughly middle-class, and her high-school sweetheart husband is a lifelong union member.

There can be no doubt that Palin’s selection is purely tactical — a decision based more on image and balance than on substance and qualifications. Palin’s youth, beauty, and distance from Washington were all chosen because they directly counter shortcomings of McCain. Her indisputable conservatism in areas where McCain has appeared moderate — abortion, the Second Amendment, drilling — as well as her “strength” in domestic issues, balances nicely with McCain’s flip-flopping war-focused campaign.

Perhaps most importantly, Palin’s nomination and election would be hailed as breaking down barriers. Indeed, today’s “it turns out the women of America aren’t finished” speech made clear that Palin’s job on this ticket is to recruit as many former Hillary supporters as possible.

But what was disturbing today was how clear it became that Palin’s job is not only to recruit women, but to simultaneously promote conservative notions of how women should be.

Palin is in many ways the perfect “family woman.” She has given birth to five children, and (even today, while standing next to her new running mate) publicly honors her husband as the man in this world she admires most. Putting herself in contrast to Hillary Clinton and even Michelle Obama, Palin identifies herself first as a “hockey mom” who never had any ambitions to enter professional politics. Arguably the two most important appeals of her candidacy involve her sons: Due to her oldest son’s enlistment she is soon to become the most high profile Iraq mom since Cindy Sheehan. And last year when she learned she was carrying a baby with Downs Syndrome, she elected not to have an abortion — a move that crystallized her endorsement by the Christian Coalition. Moreover, after her son’s birth this April, Palin returned to work three days later without requesting maternity leave.

For all these reasons, Palin’s selection as McCain’s VP is offensive, not only because there are far more experienced women out there who perhaps don’t “look” as good, but because her personal choices as a woman — as a wife and as a mother — are about to be scrutinized and politicized in a way that can only hurt women.

Palin’s pro-life stance combined with her personal history subtly reinforces the idea that there is no acceptable excuse for terminating a pregnancy — that education, healthcare, employment flexibility, and the presence of a reliable spouse or partner are incidental in the decision to have children, and anyway, are available to those who work for them. More specifically, it sends a message to women that if they become pregnant they should have the baby — regardless of whether they already have 4 children, regardless of whether they have a career they’d like to advance, and regardless of whether they know their baby will have Downs syndrome.

Similarly, Palin’s selection sends a disingenuous and alarming message to American mothers — that even if it puts their son or daughter in mortal, daily danger there is no reason not to support the war in Iraq; that gun control is unnecessary; and that this country makes it easy for women with five children (including a five month old) to have a successful career and even, say, run for Vice President.

I have zero doubt that Sarah Palin is an intelligent, capable woman who is truly dedicated to reforming government and eliminating corruption. I also have zero doubt that she lives the life she chooses — that there is strength and independence in her convictions on abortion, guns, and energy, that she really does see politics as public service, and that she truly loves and admires her husband and every one of her children without concern for how it makes her look.

But her profound lack of national experience serves as glaring evidence that she has not been selected for her qualifications, her courage, or her brain, but for the personal choices she has made for her family and for herself as a woman. Quite frankly, conservatives have rewarded a woman politically for deciding to keep a baby and for sending her son to Iraq. For this reason, Palin’s selection is a great disservice to women — and further evidence of how truly destructive a Republican victory will be for American women.

As Ian Fried aptly observes, John McCain has selected a running mate who is two years removed from running a town with fewer than 10,000 residents.  Sarah Palin has zero experience in foreign affairs, has been governor for a year and a half, and is just 12 years removed from the Wasilla City Council. This is simply not a serious pick, but it fits perfectly into McCain’s approach to running a presidential campaign.

Barack Obama deftly skewered McCain last night by pointing out that he makes “a big election about small things.”  That’s a good way to describe a campaign that runs commercials featuring Paris Hilton and Britney Spears.  It is the height of irony for McCain to have claimed that Obama will do anything to win the presidency: in fact, that ought to be the McCain campaign’s slogan: “anything to win”.  McCain has changed his position on everything from the Bush tax cuts to offshore drilling and the religious right.  Was it Howard Dean who recently observed that the McCain of 2000 wouldn’t vote for the McCain of 2008?  Whoever said it, it is on the money.

McCain has said that we are in the fight of our life against Islamic terrorism, that the stakes have never been higher, but he chose someone who is clearly not the most qualified candidate to be his running mate.  Does he really expect Americans to believe that Palin would be the best person to deal with Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, the health care crisis, and the economy, should the circumstances require?  Is Palin the person best capable of keeping the country safe, if she is required to take the reins.  Of course not–it would probably be difficult even to find many Republicans willing to argue this.  This choice is not about governing, it’s not about picking the best qualified candidate.  It’s about smoke and mirrors, somehow trying to convince women that they ought to vote for McCain because he has a woman on his ticket, no matter what her qualifications or her views, trying to place a shiny object in front of the media that will distract them from a gaffe-free, brilliantly executed Democratic national convention.  To say that McCain’s approach is condescending barely scratches the surface.

McCain’s campaign is premised on his love of country, his supposed ability to put country first.  But how could someone who really puts America first be willing to take the chance that the nation’s security will be in the hands of someone who, just two years ago, was responsible for managing a small town?

McCain’s selection of Palin is about one thing, and one thing only: a calculation that the selection will help him win an election.  I believe and hope that calculation is wrong, but the fact that McCain made this decision, the mos important decision a presidential candidate can make, so cavalierly, so crassly, tells us more about McCain than anything else we knew before.

Before her role in fighting terrorism in Alaska as the current Governor, Sarah Palin served on the Wasilla City Council and then spent two terms as Mayor/Manager of Wasilla, Alaska. Not once during her service were the 5500 residents of Wasilla attacked by terrorists.  Since assuming the office of Alaska’s Governor almost twenty months ago, again no terror attacks have taken place in the state.  And in geographic size, it is a very big state. For this accomplishment she is clearly ready to be one heartbeat away from the Presidency.

But seriously now, with today being McCain’s 72nd birthday, and with his history with cancer, it is fair to consider whether a candidate for Vice-President would be ready to assume the the presidency should something tragic occur. In her remarks this morning introducing herself to the country as McCain’s Vice-Presidential pick, Palin emphasized her role in fighting corruption, as a reformer, and in taking on the “good ol’ boys” network. That’s all well and good, but fighting corruption in Alaska (population 670,053) is a lot different than tackling it in the United States overall (population 299,398,484).  But if Rudy Giuliani believes that you can’t be President without executive experience, then with her 20 months as Governor, he must believe she is more qualified for the Presidency than McCain.

As David Gergen said on CNN this morning — if McCain claims that the most important issue and challenge facing the next President is the fight against global terrorism, then this pick makes no sense. This pick takes the experience issue out of play for McCain, though he may not “get it” yet. And in the Vice Presidential debate with Joe Biden, we can guess who is going to come across as more ready to tackle foreign policy issues.

The choice of Palin is transparently an aggressive grab for the disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporter. And it may work with a few of them.  Palin herself, in her remarks in Dayton, mentioned the “18 million cracks in the glass ceiling” that Hillary Clinton made with the number of votes she received. But will those Hillary supporters be swayed when they learn of Palin’s staunch anti-choice record? Or her unwavering support for personal gun rights and against most gun control? Or that while running for Governor she supported the teaching of creationism in public schools? Hard to say.

The dynamics of the race now favor Barack Obama and Joe Biden.  Last night’s acceptance speech was glorious in tone and presentation.  Obama took John McCain on when it comes to national security issues, and said

If John McCain wants to have a debate about who has the temperament and judgment to serve as the next commander-in-chief, that’s a debate I’m ready to have.

With the selection of Sarah Palin, McCain may have decided he doesn’t want that debate.

UPDATE: The Obama campaign spokesman, Bil Burton, on the Sarah Palin pick:

“Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency. Governor Palin shares John McCain’s commitment to overturning Roe v. Wade, the agenda of Big Oil and continuing George Bush’s failed economic policies — that’s not the change we need, it’s just more of the same.”

Today, August 29th, John McCain is celebrating his 72nd birthday by announcing his VP pick, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. In 2007 he similarly deflected from his annual age increase by officially announcing his bid for president, done via The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. 

Other past celebrations include the festive 2005 pastry-op with President Bush shown above (taken as New Orleans was getting Katrina’d) and a 2006 celebration spent on the yacht of Russian aluminum tycoon and Putin-ally Oleg Deripaska.

We at The Seminal wish the old warhorse a happy day.